Some predictions and calculations were made even before the World Cup started. Now the path is a bit clearer. The World Cup, which started with 48 teams, has been narrowed down to 32.
Along with the determination of opponents for the final 32, it is now quite clear who might face whom in the next stages. Naturally, the calculations now are more realistic than before.
For example, the prediction for the result of the first knockout match was accurately correct. The supercomputer of the sports statistics company ''Opta Analyst'' had predicted Canada's victory against South Africa in the Round of 32's first match. That's exactly what happened. Now you can find out which two teams have the highest probability of reaching the finals according to Opta's latest forecast.
According to the supercomputer's forecast, France has the highest probability of advancing from the final 32 to the final 16—81.5 per cent. Additionally, Kylian Mbappé and his team's chances of reaching the quarter-finals are 58. 3 per cent, the semi-finals 42. 7 per cent, and the final 28. 4 per cent. As for the chance of winning the championship in the final? 18. 7 per cent. This is the highest among all teams.
Although France leads in the probability of winning the title, Lionel Messi’s Argentina is further ahead in overcoming other stages of the knockout phase. Having faced Cape Verde in the Round of 32, Argentina appears to be the most ''secure'' on the path to the final 16—with an 89. 2 per cent chance of winning.
Not only that, but the reigning world champions are at the top in terms of chances of reaching the quarter-finals (70. 5 per cent), semi-finals (49. 6 per cent), and finals (30 per cent) as well. That is, the supercomputer indicates that Argentina has a heavier weight in the race to reach the finals compared to France, although the French are slightly ahead in the final moments of grabbing the trophy.
Spain is in third place on the list, with a 13. 5 per cent chance of winning the World Cup. Harry Kane's England is in fourth place with a 9. 7 per cent chance, and Neymar and Vinícius's Brazil has a 6. 5 per cent chance of winning the title.
Some other teams also have significant chances. According to Opta's supercomputer, the Netherlands has a 5. 1 per cent chance of winning the title, Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal 4. 7 per cent, and Germany 4. 4 per cent.
Additionally, Colombia (3. 2 per cent), Erling Haaland's Norway (3 per cent), host USA (2. 5 per cent), and Switzerland (2. 2 per cent) can change the equation at any moment.
On the other hand, the possibility of Mexico, one of the three host countries, winning the title is 1. 8 per cent. Last year's surprise Morocco and the golden generation of Belgium both have a 1. 6 per cent chance.
And the Asian powerhouse Japan has only a 1 chance of winning the World Cup.
However, it must be remembered that Opta's forecast is purely based on mathematical and statistical calculations. A lot can happen in 90 minutes on the football field.
