Bangladesh is a small country, yet it is home to an immense population. From villages to cities, people are everywhere. This vast population is creating challenges across almost every sector.
Bangladesh is struggling to meet its citizens' basic needs—including food, education and healthcare—and to create sufficient employment opportunities because of its large population.
According to the 2026 population estimate by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country's population stands at 179.3 million (17.93 crore). The BBS says the population is growing at an annual rate of 1.22 per cent, which means nearly 2 million (20 lakh) more people will be added within a year.
The United Nations regularly publishes the World Population Prospects, which presents the historical trends, current status and future projections of population in every country and region. According to the report, Bangladesh's population could reach nearly 200 million (20 crore) by 2036.
Experts believe that unless the country acts with caution and raises public awareness, rapid population growth alone could jeopardise Bangladesh's future progress.
Economist and United Nations Human Development Index expert Selim Jahan told Prothom Alo, "I believe that the rising population growth rate in a country with such a small geographical area as Bangladesh is an alarming warning sign."
He said the increasing population density is likely to have adverse effects on five key areas of the country's economic and human development: 1. food production, food security and nutrition; 2. housing shortages and the expansion of slums; 3. reduced availability and declining quality of education, healthcare and other social services; 4. shrinking employment opportunities and rising unemployment; and 5. increased dependence on imported consumer goods.
Population grows, land does not
Imran Hossain, a resident of Agargaon in the capital, has one child. He and his wife are planning to have a second.
Speaking to Prothom Alo at his rented home at the end of last month, Imran said the financial burden is the main factor making him hesitate.
Frequent visits to a physician, hospital expenses during childbirth, infant formula, nappies, and later the cost of education all make raising another child increasingly difficult.
Imran, who works in the private sector, said, "If we have another child, our expenses will increase dramatically. But my salary will not rise by the same amount. I keep wondering whether I will be able to raise and educate two children properly."
While Imran worries about his family's future, policymakers are concerned about the country's future. A larger population first requires more food.
According to Bangladesh's first five-year plan (1973–1978), the country's population stood at 74 million in the 1972–73 fiscal year. BBS data show that Bangladesh produced just over 9.9 million tonnes of rice that year.
By the 2024–25 fiscal year, rice production had reached 40.6 million (4.6 crore) tonnes.
In other words, rice production has increased more than fourfold. Even so, Bangladesh still has to import rice, and prices remain high.
Since independence, Bangladesh's per capita income has increased. However, a large number of people still live below the poverty line. Many of them have to queue behind government trucks to buy food.
In a brief note published in January this year, the World Food Programme (WFP) said that although Bangladesh has achieved significant economic progress, food security remains a matter of concern.
Bangladesh's greatest limitation is its land area. At present, per capita land availability stands at just 0.21 acres. Owing to housing construction, urbanisation and development activities, the amount of land available per person continues to decline.
According to the Soil Resource Development Institute, around 1 per cent of agricultural land is converted to non-agricultural use every year. River erosion also removes around 10,000 hectares of land from the national map annually.
In other words, while the population continues to grow, the land beneath people's feet continues to shrink. By 2050, per capita land availability is expected to fall below 0.15 acres, further increasing the risks to food security.
Meanwhile, data from the Department of Agricultural Extension show that Bangladesh had 19 million acres of cultivable land in 2008. By 2019, that figure had fallen to 18.6 million acres, representing a loss of 400,000 acres of agricultural land during that period.
Bangladesh imports comparatively smaller quantities of rice, but it regularly imports large volumes of wheat, edible oils (palm and soybean), sugar, lentils, onions, milk and dairy products, as well as fruit.
According to the Bangladesh Bank, the country spent US$9.07 billion on importing food grains, edible oils, sugar, pulses, milk, spices and oilseeds in the 2024–25 fiscal year. That amounted to approximately Tk1.12 trillion in local currency.
In 1798, British economist Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834) argued in his theory of population that population grows at a geometric rate (1, 2, 4, 8...) whereas food production increases only at an arithmetic rate (1, 2, 3, 4...). He warned that once the population exceeds the Earth's carrying capacity, the risk of famine and epidemics increases.
Where is the place to build houses?
As the population grows, families divide into multiple households, creating demand for new homes. As a result, large areas of agricultural land are converted into residential developments.
At the same time, people with limited land and low incomes often have no choice but to live in small houses or cramped rooms. Landless and impoverished people frequently leave rural areas and seek shelter in urban slums, which themselves are far from ideal places to live.
According to UN-Habitat, five conditions must be met for housing to qualify as adequate: access to safe drinking water, improved sanitation, sufficient living space (no more than three people per room), durable housing structures, and secure tenure without the threat of eviction.
In Bangladesh, 35 to 40 per cent of the urban population lives in slums or substandard housing, which does not meet these standards.
UN-Habitat projects that nearly 120 million (12 crore) people will live in urban areas by 2050. Estimates suggest that within the next 25 years, 40 to 50 (4 to 5 crore) million people could be living in housing that is unfit for habitation.
Mounting pressure on hospitals
Population growth has placed visible pressure on the healthcare system. Large public hospitals frequently run out of ward space, forcing patients to receive treatment on the floor or in hospital corridors.
The latest 2024 Health Bulletin published by the Directorate General of Health Services shows that the government operates 16,394 primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare facilities nationwide, including 14,364 Community Clinics in rural areas.
These public institutions provide a total of 71,000 hospital beds. In addition, the country has 8,668 privately owned clinics, hospitals, diagnostic centres and blood banks, offering 92,601 beds.
According to the Management Information System (MIS), public and private hospitals and clinics together provide healthcare services to 170 million people every year.
More than 465,000 people visit hospitals and clinics each day. However, Bangladesh does not have enough physicians, nurses and other healthcare professionals to provide quality healthcare for such a vast number of patients.
Challenge in education: quality rather than quantity
In the education sector, the primary concern has shifted from enrolment numbers to the quality of education. Overcrowded classrooms have increasingly become places for managing large numbers of students rather than delivering effective teaching.
Class sizes now typically range from 50 to 70 students, and by 2050, urban classrooms could accommodate 80 to 100 students, increasing the risk of a decline in educational standards.
Teacher-to-student ratios in government primary schools remain well above the ideal standard of 1:30. Many schools lack sufficient classroom space to accommodate all students in a single shift, forcing them to operate double-shift schedules and reducing instructional time.
Overcrowding is even more severe at the secondary and higher secondary levels, where institutions face teacher shortages and inadequate facilities despite having large student populations. These challenges further increase the risk of declining educational quality.
Although student enrolment continues to rise, Bangladesh is not producing a sufficiently skilled workforce. Instead, the country is witnessing a growing number of unemployed graduates.
More educated, more unemployed
Kaushik Roy, from Saheber Abad village in Dacope upazila of Khulna District, completed a master's degree in Management five years ago. He applied for both government and private sector jobs but was unsuccessful.
He now rents a tractor from its owner and cultivates local people's land under contractual arrangements. He said he finds work for about one month during the rice-growing season and another month during the watermelon-growing season. For the rest of the year, he remains largely unemployed.
Many similarly educated but underemployed people live not only in rural areas but also in cities. Across Bangladesh, many people now earn a living by operating motorcycles as ride-hailing drivers.
Conversations with them reveal that some hold bachelor's or master's degrees. Despite repeated attempts to secure employment, they were unsuccessful and have turned to motorcycle riding as a last resort.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Labour Force Survey 2024, the overall unemployment rate stands at 3.69 per cent. However, questions remain regarding the definition of unemployment.
Under the definition used by the International Labour Organization (ILO), anyone who works for at least one hour a week for pay is not considered unemployed. In Bangladesh's reality, however, it is impossible to sustain a livelihood by working only one hour a week.
Bangladesh currently has over 2.62 million unemployed people, including 885,000 university graduates. One in every three unemployed people in the country has completed higher education.
Over the past eight years, the number of unemployed graduates has more than doubled. More than 17 per cent of young graduates remain unemployed for more than two years after completing their bachelor's degree.
Last January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a report on Bangladesh's overall economic situation. The report stated that unemployment among the country's young population—particularly educated young people aged 15 to 29—remains alarmingly high.
Although Bangladesh has made progress in expanding education, it has failed to generate corresponding employment opportunities.
The country faces a significant mismatch between education and the labour market, and this disparity is becoming increasingly pronounced as the population continues to grow.
“It will become a burden”
A large population becomes a valuable human resource only when a country equips its people with quality education, training, healthcare and employment opportunities, enabling them to become skilled and productive members of the workforce.
However, Bangladesh has not been able to provide education, healthcare and training of sufficient quality, while the population continues to grow.
Economist and UN Human Development Index expert Selim Jahan said, "The challenges arising from population growth will make Bangladesh's development achievements more fragile and will emerge as an obstacle to the country's future development prospects. In that situation, the population will become a burden rather than an asset for Bangladesh."
