Some predictions and calculations were made even before the World Cup kicked off. Now, however, the picture has become much clearer. The tournament has been trimmed from 48 teams to 32, with the Round of 32 match-ups confirmed.
It is also becoming increasingly clear who could face whom in the later stages. Naturally, the latest projections are considered more realistic than the earlier ones.
For instance, the prediction for the first knockout match proved accurate. Sports statistics firm Opta Analyst’s supercomputer tipped Canada to beat South Africa in the opening Round of 32 fixture, and that is exactly what happened.
So, according to Opta’s latest forecast, which two teams are now most likely to reach the final?
The supercomputer gives France the highest probability of progressing from the Round of 32 to the last 16, at 81.5 per cent.
Kylian Mbappé and his teammates have a 58.3 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals, 42.7 per cent of making the semi-finals, and 28.4 per cent of reaching the final. As for lifting the trophy, France have an 18.7 per cent chance — the highest of any team.
Although France lead the title race, Lionel Messi's Argentina are rated more likely to progress through each stage of the knockout rounds. Drawn against Cape Verde in the Round of 32, Argentina are considered the safest bet to reach last 16, with an 89.2 per cent chance of victory.
Not only that, the reigning world champions also top the projections for reaching the quarter-finals (70.5 per cent), semi-finals (49.6 per cent) and the final (30 per cent).
In other words, the supercomputer suggests Argentina have a better chance than France of making the final, although the French are marginally more likely to go on and win the trophy.
Spain are third on the list, with a 13.5 per cent chance of winning the World Cup. Harry Kane's England are fourth on 9.7 per cent, while Neymar and Vinícius Júnior’s Brazil have a 6.5 per cent chance of lifting the title.
Several other teams also remain firmly in contention. Opta’s supercomputer gives the Netherlands a 5.1 per cent chance of becoming champions, Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal 4.7 per cent, and Germany 4.4 per cent.
Colombia (3.2 per cent), Erling Haaland’s Norway (3 per cent), one of the hosts the United States (2.5 per cent) and Switzerland (2.2 per cent) are all considered capable of springing surprises.
Meanwhile, co-hosts Mexico have a 1.8 per cent chance of winning the tournament. Surprise package Morocco from the last World Cup and Belgium’s golden generation are both rated at 1.6 per cent, while Asian heavyweights Japan have just a 1 per cent chance of lifting the World Cup.
It is worth remembering, however, that Opta’s forecast is based solely on mathematical modelling and statistical analysis. In football, anything can happen over the 90 minutes.
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