Prime Minister's China visit and the diplomacy ahead

The new government of Tarique Rahman has taken charge amidst various economic pressures and challenges; there is a need to increase foreign exchange reserves, attract new investments, create employment opportunities, rejuvenate industrialisation, at the same time not halting infrastructure development. Amidst this, the Iran war breaks out, exacerbating the situation. Given these circumstances, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's choice of countries for his first foreign trip naturally carried significant economic considerations.

The Prime Minister visited Malaysia and then China. From an economic standpoint, both countries are important for Bangladesh. Malaysia is a major source of remittances for Bangladesh. Lifting the current ban on the labour migration to Malaysia is a key expectation for Bangladesh.

Additionally, China is one of Bangladesh's major partners for economic development, providing loans on easy terms, investments, infrastructure assistance, and trade relations. However, considering regional geopolitics and strategic perspectives, the visits to these two countries carry different dimensions and distinctions.

In such a reality, an effective path for Bangladesh is not to align itself with a specific sphere of regional and global politics. Instead of becoming part of one party's strategic rivalry, it is effective for smaller and medium countries to maintain parallel relationships with competing nations while keeping national interests in mind and balancing relationships with multiple powers.

The visit to Malaysia can be seen largely in light of economic-commercial cooperation and interests, and the relationship between two Asian or Muslim countries, with little scope for broader analysis. On the other hand, even though China is a major economic, commercial, development, and investment partner for Bangladesh, the relationship between the two countries cannot be considered solely on this basis. There are deeper connections with changing global politics, regional and global geopolitical competition, and influence. This visit by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman must be viewed separately from previous visits of this kind. Why? That would be addressed later.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in October 1975, politics in Bangladesh and China has gone through various changes, but the fundamental character of the relationship between the two countries has not changed significantly. China's general policy is to maintain good relations with all types of governments, prioritising trade and economic interests above all. Whether a country has a democratic government in power or a military or authoritarian government is not their concern. This has been observed in the case of Bangladesh. It can be said that China's relationship with any Bangladeshi government has not ever been particularly bad in that sense.

In regional geopolitics, the India-China relationship is highly competitive. We know that during the last Awami League regime, Bangladesh became completely immersed in India's sphere of influence. However, this did not pose a major problem for China. They maintained close ties with the Hasina government, and many major projects were implemented with Chinese assistance during that time. During Hasina's era, China became Bangladesh's largest trading partner, and they faced no issues with her downfall either.

Now, I will address why this visit needs to be seen differently from previous visits by Bangladeshi heads of government to China. Among the five decades of relations between the two countries, during Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit, the Bangladesh-China joint communique was issued for the third time. If we analyze this communique and the overall visit, it's evident that for the first time, more emphasis was placed on the political relationship between the two countries than on financial assistance or development project-based discussions.

I have already discussed China's general foreign policy stance; they prioritise economics over politics. However, in the past decade, changes have begun to appear in China's diplomacy. Economic cooperation remains their primary tool, but political relations are receiving more importance as well. It can be said that after the initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is not limiting its role to infrastructure development alone. They have adopted a policy of building relationships with political parties, policymakers, think tanks, and the media as well.

Before the Prime Minister's visit to China, a column by Liu Zongyi, director of the Center for South Asia Studies, was published in China's Global Times, indicating this shift in China's position. It became evident that China is now starting to place importance on political relationships alongside economic ties with partner countries.

His argument is that Bangladesh's intellectuals and high-ranking groups are largely influenced by the Western development model. They practice Western economic theories and governance systems and remain cautious regarding China's development framework and production capacity enhancement collaboration. He believes that Bangladesh needs to find a ''path of development suited to its national context. '' To find this path, he suggested increasing institutional communication between the political parties, think tanks, and local governments of the two countries.

We have seen visits to China by leaders from various political parties and ideologies in Bangladesh at the invitation of the Chinese government after the mass uprising in July. Confucius Institutes have been established in various universities across the country with China's assistance over the past few years. It is clear that such initiatives will increase in the future.

Among the 13 memorandums of understanding signed this time, subjects like Chinese language education and media cooperation are included. A memorandum of understanding was signed between the BNP and the Communist Party of China. It is not merely a formality; party-to-party communication holds strategic significance in diplomacy. China is now adopting this strategy in South Asia.

The world is going through changes in global politics. Considering political and economic factors, China's influence and importance are increasing worldwide. It is natural for the country to adopt a strategy of politically engaging with various countries beyond trade and economics. On the other hand, for economic interest, Bangladesh needs easy sources of funds. Whether through loans or investment, it seems there is no alternative for Bangladesh other than China. If Bangladesh can secure its economic, commercial, and infrastructural development interests through China, it will take that route, which is only natural. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit to China has delivered that message.

However, it is crucial to consider regional and global realities in this regard. In the regional context, India-China competition, globally, the US's efforts to counter China, the US Indo-Pacific strategy, or the country's Quad security dialogue involving India, Japan, and Australia cannot be overlooked. The expansion of the Mongla port, the industrial zone in Chittagong planned by China, maritime cooperation, or the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh economic corridor—India will not view these solely as economic projects; they will see them as strategic occurrences. In today's world, ports are not merely trade infrastructure. They are related to maritime control, supply systems, energy security, and military presence. Similarly, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and power projects have now become significant elements in geopolitical competition.

We must remember that the United States is one of Bangladesh's primary export markets. The European union is also among them. Japan has been one of Bangladesh’s most reliable development partners for many decades. India is Bangladesh's most important neighbour, with a lengthy border, shared rivers, trade, communication, energy, and border security—interdependence cannot be denied. Altogether, Bangladesh and its economy are tied and dependent on relationships with many countries and powers.

In such a reality, an effective path for Bangladesh is not to align itself with a specific sphere of regional and global politics. Instead of becoming part of one party's strategic rivalry, it is effective for smaller and medium countries to maintain parallel relationships with competing nations while keeping national interests in mind and balancing relationships with multiple powers.

I mentioned earlier that within the Chinese visit of the Prime Minister, there is a message of focusing on the country's economic and commercial interests. We have to wait and see how Bangladesh maintains this continuity with other countries. However, it would not be accurate to consider this visit as the beginning of a major change in diplomacy or foreign policy. Because no single visit can determine the direction of diplomacy. It is determined by a series of steps and decisions and a long-term strategy. The challenge ahead for Bangladesh is to ensure a mature, confident, and pragmatic foreign policy or diplomacy.

#AKM Zakaria is a Deputy Editor at Prothom Alo.

*The opinions expressed here are the author's own.

#This article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.