When will the budget move beyond the boundary of numbers?

We have a natural weakness for numbers. Whenever a subject is reflected through numbers, we tend to believe it to be definitive and true. However, numbers are an arithmetic aspect, and we often forget the important analytical frameworks, concepts, and values that lie behind the abstraction of numbers, as often happens during budget analysis and discussions. This has been true for this year’s budget debate as well.

Numerous figures and data have been raised in the discussion and analysis of Bangladesh's budget for 2026-27, sparking debates over various numerical aspects of the budget. Since a country’s budget is its annual economic balance sheet, numbers, data, and monetary accounts will naturally be included. These are undoubtedly important, but the fundamental question that remains after all the numbers, data, income-expenditure, surplus-deficit, and allocation is how much comfort will this bring to people's lives and how much will it improve their living standards? A budget should be for the people—thus, Bangladesh's budget needs to go beyond the boundary of numbers.

In that context, it's important to note that beyond numbers, data, and numerical structures, every budget should have a developmental philosophy. Does a budget believe that a country's material development is everything, or does it hold the philosophy that human development is the end goal of progress?

The title of the 2026-27 budget was ‘An Inclusive Development Towards Building a Humanitarian Society’. From this title, three characteristics of the current budget emerge. One, it will be a welfare-oriented budget focusing on humanity. Two, the philosophy of this budget is to improve the quality of human life. Three, the development achieved will include everyone, and the benefits of development will be evenly distributed.

Secondly, in light of the aforementioned developmental philosophy, this budget’s objectives have been set, strategies have been identified, and allocations have been made. Two aspects are quite crucial in this context. One, there needs to be an assessment and evaluation at the outset to see how much these elements align with the budget’s developmental philosophy. Without this, necessary adjustments should be considered from the start. Two, it’s essential to evaluate how realistic the budget’s targeted goals are.

For example, the growth target for the 2026-27 budget is set at 6. 5 per cent, which is double the current growth rate. How realistic is this given the current economic slowdown in Bangladesh? Conversely, the inflation target has been set at 7. 5 per cent. Are these targets achievable in the present reality? Another aspect is that such targets will further elevate already high public expectations. If these ambitious targets are not achieved, public confidence in the government will be hindered, which could undermine the credibility of the current nascent government.

Thirdly, the current budget has had to face a difficult balancing process. On one hand, the budget had to be economical, while on the other, it had to be ambitious. This is because the budget had to be conservative due to funding constraints, but at the same time, various incentives had to be provided in the budget to overcome economic sluggishness. Therefore, the budget had to ensure public comfort on one hand, while being incentive-oriented on the other. Additionally, the budget will face three significant obstacles in the future—traditional and evolving implementation problems, financial barriers, and ongoing global crises.

The problem of budget implementation is greater than budget formulation itself. Projects are often delayed due to numerous obstacles. Our economic discipline has broken down, leading to new issues in budget implementation. The current budget has a fairly large expenditure. The question is, where will the funds come from? Our revenue collection foundation and structure are quite weak. In this situation, the government has to rely on domestic and foreign loans. If the government undertakes large borrowings from the banking system, the availability of loans in the private sector will decrease.

More importantly, our foreign debt and repayment burden are extremely high. In this situation, obtaining new loans from international sources will be difficult, and it's also important to remember that interest rates in the global market have increased and repayment periods have been shortened. As geopolitical and geo-economic crises intensify in the global arena, along with the rise of economic nationalism, Bangladesh may face new challenges in the future.

None of the problems mentioned above are isolated from one another, and in that context, the first budget of the current government needs to be viewed in terms of its larger five-year plan, which has already been announced. Each budget in the coming five years will be a phase in that medium-term plan. We hope that each year's budget will progressively advance toward the goals of that five-year plan. From this perspective, we will evaluate at the end of the current fiscal year whether this year’s budget has achieved what was expected in terms of the government's medium-term goals.

This evaluation is important because Bangladesh will have to address three kinds of problems in the coming days—ongoing issues, accumulated problems, and emerging challenges. Issues such as poverty and deprivation, economic stagnation, inflation, and unemployment will continue to be ongoing crises for the Bangladesh economy.

Accumulated problems will include inequality and discrimination, violence against women, financial sector crises, and environmental pollution. Various global crisis dimensions, preparations for transitioning to a developing country, geo-economic obstacles, and economic nationalism will emerge as upcoming impediments to the Bangladesh economy. All these will disrupt the achievement of budgetary targets.

In this context, Bangladesh must prioritise various reforms in the coming days—political, financial and economic, social, and cultural reforms. There is no alternative to these. Secondly, new opportunities must be seized. Diversification of the economy is crucial. The opportunities and prospects of the creative economy, blue economy, and green economy must be utilised.

In the current budget, the creative economy has also been given importance, and funds have been allocated for it. However, to take advantage of these opportunities, Bangladesh must build its human resources. This requires necessary funding in education and health sectors, reforms, and improvements in the quality of provided services.

Thirdly, to establish Bangladesh as a welfare-oriented and welfare-prone state, economic democracy must be ensured in addition to political democracy. Democratisation of the economy is therefore essential. Beyond the boundary of numbers, Bangladesh’s economy must reach that place.

#Selim Jahan is the former director of the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

*Opinions expressed here are the author's own.

#The article, originally published in Prothom Alo print and online editions, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam