Prime Minister’s China visit: Symbolic success or beginning of a new strategic chapter?

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's first overseas tour, covering Malaysia and China, is significant for several reasons. The China visit, in particular, represents not merely a continuation of bilateral relations but also the possibility of opening a new chapter in Bangladesh's foreign policy. A state visit is rarely just a ceremonial event; it often signals a country's future diplomatic direction, economic priorities, and strategic positioning within the region.

To properly assess the prime minister's visit, however, three key questions must be answered: What did Bangladesh gain? What did China gain? And did the visit strengthen Bangladesh's balanced foreign policy?

Since diplomatic relations were established in 1975, political and economic cooperation between the two countries expanded rapidly during the presidency of Ziaur Rahman. Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's multiple visits to China later elevated the relationship further. In that sense, Tarique Rahman's visit to Beijing is the part of a long-standing trajectory of bilateral engagement.

Much attention has focused on the 17 memorandums of understanding signed during the visit. From a diplomatic perspective, however, the joint statement issued by the two countries is even more significant. Memorandums of understanding often await implementation, whereas a joint statement reflects the political commitment of both governments and outlines the future direction of their strategic relationship.

In the joint statement, Bangladesh and China pledged to further deepen their existing Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership while reaffirming their commitment to building a shared future. In Chinese diplomatic language, such terminology is far more than diplomatic courtesy; it signifies long-term cooperation in economic development, technology, infrastructure, and strategic affairs.

Another notable outcome of the visit is the initiative to establish an institutional framework for regular dialogue between the two countries at the foreign affairs and defence levels. Only a limited number of South Asian countries have such an arrangement with China. This indicates that bilateral relations are expanding beyond trade and development projects to include security and broader strategic cooperation.

Economically, the visit is equally significant. It has opened new avenues for cooperation in the expansion of Mongla Port, industrial zones in Anwara and Chattogram, agriculture, renewable energy, technology, logistics, and human resource development. The participation of nearly 80 leading Chinese companies in the Invest Bangladesh conference held in Beijing also sends a positive signal about investor interest in Bangladesh.

This is, however, where reality comes into focus. Foreign investment does not materialise through declarations alone. Investors seek policy stability, uninterrupted electricity and gas supplies, efficient ports, prompt administrative services, legal certainty, and a transparent tax regime. Ultimately, the economic success of the visit will depend on how effectively the government's announced 180-day reform programme is implemented.

Another important pillar of Bangladesh-China cooperation is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since Bangladesh formally joined the initiative in 2016, China has supported numerous projects, including the Karnaphuli Tunnel, power plants, roads, bridges, special economic zones, and digital infrastructure. 

The BRI itself has also evolved. Its focus is no longer limited to large-scale infrastructure projects; greater emphasis is now placed on industrialisation, technology, green energy, agriculture, and production-oriented investment. The reference in the joint statement to "high-quality BRI cooperation" reflects this shift.

The visit also highlighted China's positive stance regarding Bangladesh's aspiration to join BRICS. According to the government's briefing, Bangladesh expressed its interest in becoming associated with the grouping, and China assured Dhaka of its support. Although BRICS membership cannot be determined by any single member state, China's backing constitutes an important diplomatic advancement for Bangladesh. If Bangladesh eventually joins the bloc, it could strengthen access to development financing, South-South cooperation, and closer ties with emerging economies.

At the same time, the possibility of Bangladesh becoming involved with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) also featured in discussions. Bangladesh is not currently a member of the organisation, but if it can secure observer or dialogue partner status, new opportunities may emerge for economic, security, and regional cooperation with Central and broader Asian countries.

From a geopolitical perspective, perhaps the most discussed issue was the prospect of connectivity among Bangladesh, China, and Myanmar. Many observers view it as a possible revival of the BCIM Economic Corridor. The initiative had largely stalled because of India's longstanding security concerns and broader regional strategic calculations. 

Yet the path forward remains far from straightforward. The continuing conflict in Myanmar, instability in Rakhine State, and competition among major powers will continue to pose significant challenges. Therefore, this should be viewed as a future possibility rather than an imminent project.

Past experience, however, suggests that tangible progress matters far more than diplomatic commitments. Unless safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation is ensured, the true value of such cooperation cannot be properly assessed.

A similarly cautious assessment is warranted regarding the Teesta Master Plan. China has expressed interest in supporting joint feasibility studies, providing technical assistance, and assisting with project planning. 

However, it has not yet committed to financing or implementing the project. Consequently, it remains appropriate to view the initiative as a potential opportunity rather than a confirmed undertaking.

On the Rohingya crisis, China has also expressed its willingness to facilitate dialogue between Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is undoubtedly a positive development. Past experience, however, suggests that tangible progress matters far more than diplomatic commitments. Unless safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation is ensured, the true value of such cooperation cannot be properly assessed.

Another important aspect of the visit is its reaffirmation of Bangladesh's balanced foreign policy. Deepening relations with China does not imply reducing the importance of other partners. The United States and Europe remain Bangladesh's principal export markets, Japan has long been one of its foremost development partners, and India is Bangladesh's closest neighbour and an important economic partner. Therefore, Bangladesh's most effective strategy is to continue pursuing a balanced, multi-dimensional foreign policy guided by national interests.

Tarique Rahman's visit to China is certainly not a failure. At the same time, it is to early to call it a transformative success. The visit's real significance lies not in the memorandums of understanding themselves but in the political language of the joint statement, the growing strategic trust between the two countries, China's positive support for Bangladesh's future engagement with BRICS, the evolving direction of BRI cooperation, and the foundations laid for future economic and diplomatic opportunities.

In diplomacy, declarations mark only the beginning. True success depends on implementation. Over the coming years, the real measure of this visit will be determined by how much Chinese investment increases, how many industrial zones are established, how much employment is generated, how far the Teesta Master Plan progresses, how Bangladesh advances its engagement with BRICS and potentially the SCO, and how effectively it maintains balanced relations with India, the United States, Europe, and Japan.

The visit may not have produced any dramatic or immediate transformation. Nevertheless, it undoubtedly represents an important step towards placing Bangladesh-China relations on a more structured and strategic foundation. The real question now is how quickly these political commitments can be translated into tangible economic cooperation, investment, employment generation, and broader diplomatic achievements.

*Dr. Md. Shahabul Haque is Professor, Department of Political Studies, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet.

*The views expressed are those of the author.

* This article appeared in Prothom Alo and has been translated by Farjana Liaqat for Prothom Alo English Online